In June this year, Frost & Sullivan will hold its 2013
APAC ICT awards banquet. This is the tenth such banquet. Frost & Sullivan’s
Asia Pacific ‘Best Practices’ program has been running since 2003.
This anniversary is a great opportunity for us to reflect on
some of the developments in the ICT business over the past 10 years, and to
predict some changes over the next 10 years.
Frost & Sullivan’s ‘Best Practices’ program uses
research to identify firms that demonstrate outstanding performance in
particular sectors. Increasingly,
companies that are identified as offering best practices in their sector, are
demonstrating innovation and the ability to drive markets through this
innovation.
Making predictions around technology developments is, and
always has been, a profoundly challenging task. However, we do believe that
some powerful trends, that are currently gaining momentum, will strongly
influence our technology experience in 2023.
If we go back to 2003, the ‘IPification’ of everything was
not yet envisaged. We did not expect telephones to cease to exist. We did not
expect voice communications to become just one function that we can use on our
preferred devices. We didn’t expect to be carrying powerful IP enabled
computing devices in our pockets and handbags. We did not expect to see IP
enabled devices being embedded in cars, in consumer good, and in buildings.
The ‘IPification’ of everything is forcing the convergence
of ICT, as we know it today, with a whole host of industry specific processes.
For example, we are starting to witness manufacturing automation processes
converge with IT as IP enabled technology is built into manufacturing
activities. This process is creating huge opportunities for innovation as
organizations experiment with and test IP enabled technology.
So, against this background, what is our vision for 2023? We will focus on aspects of
technology change that will be noticeable to ordinary people and are
transformative.
# 1 Today’s PC centred model of computing will no longer
exist. It was the standard model of computing in 2003 and is currently changing
very rapidly. In 2023, we will inhabit a world where businesses and consumers
will access IT resources, and conduct the bulk of their
interactions from non PC devices. These devices will include home entertainment
units (usually described as TVs or games consoles today), in vehicle consoles,
wearable devices such as watches, in addition to a range of tablet and smart
phone devices.
#2 The focus of the CIO will transform from a focus on the
management and optimization of IT assets to a focus on using technology to
underpin innovation within the enterprise.
In 2003, the CIO was measured on his/her ability to support enterprise
goals within an agreed budget. Today, in 2013, the CIO is increasingly involved
in enabling change within the organization. In 2023, the CIO will proactively focus
on using technology to drive innovation within the enterprise. The IT department that we know today
will cease to exist.
#3 Leading technology firms will change. New firms will
emerge that benefit from this change. One thing is for sure. The companies that
dominate today’s technology markets and those which dominated in 2003 are
unlikely to remain dominant throughout this technology upheaval. Apple and
Facebook will wield a lot less influence in 2023 than they do today. Amazon and
Google have better odds.
#4 Self service will spread widely across business and other
human activity. In 2003, technology driven self service activities were in their
infancy. By 2023, supermarkets with
check outs will look very old fashioned as self service becomes the typical
supermarket experience. Similarly, the entire airline experience will be self
service. Printing your own boarding passes and luggage tags will soon be normal.
By 2023, the customer will expect a self service experience when dealing with
organizations. Apps will take over as the primary form of interaction for
customers.
#5 IP technology will be embedded across all industries. For
example, this change will lead to IP enabled automation across manufacturing
activities. In 2003, automation in manufacturing was typically a proprietary
activity, and was not integrated with other forms of computing. By 2023, the development of IP enabled automation, together with the
development of 3D printing, will allow manufacturing to move closer to the
source of demand. As labour becomes a smaller and smaller proportion of
manufacturing costs and customization becomes critical, the benefits associated
with offshore manufacturing will become negligible. Expect to see an upsurge in
manufacturing activity in North America and Western Europe over the next 10
years.
#6 In 2023, companies will typically have agile, cloud-based
IT infrastructures. Combined with the ability to analyse and intelligently use
vast amounts of data, this IT infrastructure will make it easier for firms to
move into new industries. In 2003, enterprises were usually working with a mix of
legacy proprietary technology and distributed systems that restricted their
agility. In 2013, we are witnessing a rapid transition towards agile, cloud
based IT infrastructures. In 2023, we
can expect to see more companies use their agile IT infrastructures, their
brands and huge amounts of data to enter new industries. For example, both
Google and Amazon are already doing this, in the financial
services industry as well as many others. Expect to see the re-emergence of the
conglomerate. In 2023, companies will differentiate themselves by the way they
use technology, the way the use data, and the way they use their brands.
Frost & Sullivan’s research reveals that successful
technology firms are factoring these powerful trends into their strategies. We
expect that companies which demonstrate best practices in key ICT sectors to continue to perform excellently. Furthermore, we expect them to play a role in
shaping and influencing these exciting trends.
